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	<title>Margin of Safety &#187; LinkedIn</title>
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	<link>http://amarginofsafety.com</link>
	<description>&#34;...to distill the secret of sound investment into three words...&#34;</description>
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		<title>LinkedIn &#8220;Meets&#8221; Earnings Expectations&#8230;Much Joy in Socialville</title>
		<link>http://amarginofsafety.com/2012/08/03/linkedin-meets-earnings-expectations-much-joy-in-socialville/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=linkedin-meets-earnings-expectations-much-joy-in-socialville</link>
		<comments>http://amarginofsafety.com/2012/08/03/linkedin-meets-earnings-expectations-much-joy-in-socialville/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Aug 2012 16:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ray Galkowski, CFA</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Glamour Companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LinkedIn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LNKD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long-Short]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Short Sales]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://amarginofsafety.com/?p=1407</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Full disclosure: I have a modest short position in LNKD. LinkedIn (LNKD) announced that they met Thomson Reuters analysts&#8217; expectations for earnings at $0.16 per share this quarter. In addition, second quarter revenue at $228.2 million, beat analysts&#8217; expectations of $215.7 &#8230; <a href="http://amarginofsafety.com/2012/08/03/linkedin-meets-earnings-expectations-much-joy-in-socialville/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;">Full disclosure: I have a modest short position in LNKD.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">LinkedIn (LNKD) announced that they met Thomson Reuters analysts&#8217; expectations for earnings at $0.16 per share this quarter. In addition, second quarter <em>revenue </em>at $228.2 million, beat analysts&#8217; expectations of $215.7 million. The stock is currently up over 12% on that news.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Then there is the pesky bit about profits and cash flows; you know, those items that compensate investors for allocating capital to a firm. Net income was $2.8 million, down 38% from the same quarter a year ago. Why? Well it seems earnings took a big hit when executives congratulated themselves with large option and stock payouts this quarter compared with one year ago. In fact, the $0.16 EPS figure was a non-GAAP measure.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">When taking executive comp in stock and options into account, EPS was actually $0.03. The company would like investors to look the other way on the latter number. I would too if I just confiscated 81% of my firm&#8217;s profits in the quarter.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">If we extrapolate these best-ever quarterly revenue numbers over a whole year, then LNKD is trading for 10.6 times sales (it is actually trading at 15 times TTM sales). LNKD has a market capitalization of nearly $10 billion. In order for LNKD to turn itself into the next growth story like Apple and bring its price-to-sales ratio in line with Apple&#8217;s very high 3.8 multiple, LNKD would have to almost double its sales. In order to bring that multiple in line with the rest of the large-cap market, it would have to increase sales 768% (almost 8 times!!!!).</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Don&#8217;t get me wrong, I like LinkedIn&#8217;s services. I am already contemplating abandoning Outlook contacts. But, aren&#8217;t all unemployed professionals already on LinkedIn? Where is growth going to come from?</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Then there are the other pesky metrics. Trailing PE of 952. Forward PE of 152 (not including the 38% decline in profits). Price-to-cash flow multiple of about 100. Price-to-book of about 100. And, a 2% net profit margin after management takes its exorbitant cut. If you are an investor in LNKD and don&#8217;t know who the mark is at this poker table, it is you.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">
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		<item>
		<title>LinkedOut&#8211;Securities Borrowing and the Inability to Correct Bad Prices</title>
		<link>http://amarginofsafety.com/2011/05/25/linkedout/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=linkedout</link>
		<comments>http://amarginofsafety.com/2011/05/25/linkedout/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 May 2011 19:22:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ray Galkowski, CFA</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LinkedIn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long-Short]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Short Sales]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://amarginofsafety.com/?p=733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Securities borrowing costs can be a problem when trying to short clearly overvalued businesses (from a Dow Jones NewsPlus story today): The average wholesale rate to borrow LinkedIn was 86% on Tuesday, Astec&#8217;s data show. This means that hedge funds seeking &#8230; <a href="http://amarginofsafety.com/2011/05/25/linkedout/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;">Securities borrowing costs can be a problem when trying to short clearly overvalued businesses (from a Dow Jones NewsPlus story today):</p>
<blockquote>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The average wholesale rate to borrow LinkedIn was 86% on Tuesday, Astec&#8217;s data show. This means that hedge funds seeking to sell the stock short may have had to pay as much as 181% on an annualized basis to borrow shares, according to the company&#8217;s estimates. LinkedIn is the fourth-most expensive stock in the U.S. to borrow at present, the same data show.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Unlike similarly priced shorts, there&#8217;s still more LinkedIn shares to go around. LinkedIn borrowers have tapped only about 22% of available shares, Astec&#8217;s data show. Very high rates usually correspond with a scarcity of stock to borrow, with utilization rates like 90% to 100%. The high cost versus a relatively ample supply was read as a sign that shareholders were capitalizing on the publicity and strong interest in bearish LinkedIn positions.</p>
</blockquote>
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