Margin of Safety

CFA: Three Letters That Make a Difference

Posted on May 4, 2016 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

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Rare Video of Peter Cundill Lecture from 2005

Posted on December 11, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

I read Russo-Gill’s book on Peter Cundill–There is Always Something to Do– soon after it was published in 2011, but not the Routines and Orgies book on the same subject.

BeyondProxy linked to this rare footage of Cundill speaking of his investment philosophy (Value) and approach to capturing the value premium. Peter, a Canadian, found that no matter what was happening in… Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Behavioral Finance, Benjamin Graham, CFA, CFA Institute, Chartered Financial Analyst, Margin of Safety, Peter Cundill, Risk, There is Always Something To Do, Value Ideas, Value Investing, Video, Warren Buffett | Leave a comment

Relationship Between Stock Returns and Interest Rate Movements

Posted on December 5, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

I try to find evidence that refutes my theses on expected market returns to avoid behavioral traps. This graph from JP Morgan Asset Management’s research team offers some optimism for equities for rolling two-year periods if the Fed starts to raise while 10-Year Treasury yields are still below 5%. But, the shape of this historical curve is due to conditions that might not exist now. Rates are usually low when… Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Behavioral Finance, Debt Crisis, Employment to Population Ratio, JP Morgan Asset Management, Quantitative Easing, Risk, Robert Shiller, Stock Prices vs Treasury Yields, The Rational Optimist | Leave a comment

Market Overvaluation: It’s Not Just the CAPE

Posted on August 30, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

After my last post, I saw a blog post on another value investing site that criticized the type of CAPE analysis that I presented last week to indicate the market was overvalued.

The author of that post suggests that the CAPE is useless for comparisons since FAS 157 changed accounting for fair value. A review of other posts recently made by the author indicate… Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Behavioral Finance, Buffett's P/E Ratio, CAPE, Corporate Profit Margins, Employment to Population Ratio, European Debt Crisis, Margin of Safety, Matt Ridley, Quantitative Easing, Risk, The Rational Optimist, Tobin's Q Ratio, Warren Buffett | Leave a comment

After the Market Plunge: The Market is Still Significantly Overvalued

Posted on August 23, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

After the 8/17/15 through 8/21/15 plunge of 5.8% in the S&P 500 index and Dow, many are wondering whether the worst is over. It is impossible to predict what next week or next year will look like, but you ignore at your own peril the concept of regression to the mean over the next ten- to twenty-years. Since 2011, this blog has regularly published pieces about the overvaluation of the market… Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Behavioral Finance, CAPE, Competition and Strategy, Conventional Professional Investors, Factor Premia, Goals-based investing, Goals-based planning, Margin of Safety, PAR, PAR Wealth Management, Quantitative Easing, Risk, Robert Shiller, Separate Account Value Investing (SAVI) Strategies, Tobin's Q Ratio, Traditional Wealth Management, Value Investing, Warren Buffett | Leave a comment

Employment-to-Pop and CAPE Updates

Posted on June 5, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

Readers know there are two statistics that have caused me to worry for the past few years about the health of the economy and the market.

The first statistic is a macroeconomic indicator called the Employment-to-Population Ratio (E/Pop, to distinguish it from E/P or earnings yield). I prefer E/Pop to all other employment-health indicators because, unlike the unemployment and labor force participation rates, it takes the least amount of manipulation… Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Behavioral Finance, Benjamin Graham, CAPE, Euro Crisis, European Debt Crisis, Financial Media, Housing Bust, Margin of Safety, Quantitative Easing, Risk, Robert Shiller, Tobin's Q Ratio | Leave a comment

Natixis Sees a Lack of Realism in Individual Investor Expectations

Posted on April 14, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

Natixis published its fourth Global Survey of Individual Investors today. They reached 7,000 investors in 17 countries.

http://ngam.natixis.com/docs/265/1012/2015%20Individual%20Investor%20Survey%20white%20paper_FINAL,0.pdf

Many of the findings show that individuals are unrealistic and confused. Individual investors say they need 9.7% returns above inflation to meet their goals, which is higher than last year, although 84% said they would choose safety over performance, also higher than last year.… Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Behavioral Finance, CFA, Chartered Financial Analyst, Financial Advice, Financial Adviser, Financial Media, Financial Planning, Goals-based investing, Goals-based planning, Natixis Global Survey of Individual Investors, Retirement, Risk | Leave a comment

Sam Zell Expects a Market Correction (Video)

Posted on April 1, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

Sam Zell was on Squawk Box this morning and warned of a correction. He repeated many of the themes that have been written here over the past few years, including the theme of Federal Reserve excesses leading to rising asset prices. It prompted me to go to Zell’s website, which listed quotes outlining his philosophy. I agreed with almost all of the quotes, but I was especially struck by one, because years ago… Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Behavioral Finance, CNBC, Equity Group Investments, Market Correction, Murder your darlings, Quantitative Easing, Risk, Sam Zell, Short Sales, Squawk Box, Value Ideas, Value Investing, Video | 2 Comments

When Benjamin Graham Learned a Difficult Lesson

Posted on March 6, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

This comes courtesy of Frank Martin, CFA’s 2014 Annual Report to his clients. I had the pleasure of Skyping with Frank a few years ago.

“At the quarter-century mark of 1925, the great bull market was under way, and Graham, then 31, had enjoyed impressive success as an investor in the challenging years since 1915. During an early-1929 conversation with business associate Bernard Baruch… Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Behavioral Finance, Benjamin Graham, Bernard Baruch, CFA, Frank Martin, Margin of Safety, Value Investing | Leave a comment

CFA South Florida’s Member-Promotion Video Release

Posted on February 13, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

I was happy to participate in this video production (make sure your YouTube settings are on HD for the best experience).

I have come to know the participants in the video as outstanding individuals, who volunteered their valuable time to promote the CFA Charter and the Members of the CFA Society of South Florida. The video is already being viewed in Charlottesville as an “inspiration” for… Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged CFA, CFA Institute, CFA Society of South Florida, CFA South Florida, CFASFL, Chartered Financial Analyst, Cindy New, Find a Financial Adviser Near You, Franklin Templeton Investors, GenSpring Family Offices, Greg Newman, Jessica Wang, Mat Gulley, Member Promotion, Mercator Asset Management, Mike Murgio, NextEra Energy, Northern trust Asset Management, Robin Kollannur, Tisha Turner, Video | Leave a comment

CFA: Three Letters That Make a Difference

Rare Video of Peter Cundill Lecture from 2005

Relationship Between Stock Returns and Interest Rate Movements

Market Overvaluation: It’s Not Just the CAPE

After the Market Plunge: The Market is Still Significantly Overvalued

Employment-to-Pop and CAPE Updates

Natixis Sees a Lack of Realism in Individual Investor Expectations

Sam Zell Expects a Market Correction (Video)

When Benjamin Graham Learned a Difficult Lesson

CFA South Florida’s Member-Promotion Video Release

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