Tag Archives: Risk

Several of the Grey Swans Itemized in February 2012 Have Materialized in the Last Twelve Months

http://amarginofsafety.com/2012/02/24/a-herd-of-grey-swans/ Check out: #5: Unrest as Iran develops a nuclear weapon (almost there); #6: A Chinese economic implosion; #8: Public sector retirement default (Puerto Rico is closing in); #9: Significant unrest in the Muslim world due to US withdrawal (Benghazi, ISIS, etc.); … Continue reading

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Rare Video of Peter Cundill Lecture from 2005

I read Russo-Gill’s book on Peter Cundill–There is Always Something to Do– soon after it was published in 2011, but not the Routines and Orgies book on the same subject. BeyondProxy linked to this rare footage of Cundill speaking of … Continue reading

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Relationship Between Stock Returns and Interest Rate Movements

I try to find evidence that refutes my theses on expected market returns to avoid behavioral traps. This graph from JP Morgan Asset Management’s research team offers some optimism for equities for rolling two-year periods if the Fed starts to … Continue reading

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Market Overvaluation: It’s Not Just the CAPE

After my last post, I saw a blog post on another value investing site that criticized the type of CAPE analysis that I presented last week to indicate the market was overvalued. The author of that post suggests that the … Continue reading

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Employment-to-Pop and CAPE Updates

Readers know there are two statistics that have caused me to worry for the past few years about the health of the economy and the market. The first statistic is a macroeconomic indicator called the Employment-to-Population Ratio (E/Pop, to distinguish … Continue reading

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Natixis Sees a Lack of Realism in Individual Investor Expectations

Natixis published its fourth Global Survey of Individual Investors today. They reached 7,000 investors in 17 countries. http://ngam.natixis.com/docs/265/1012/2015%20Individual%20Investor%20Survey%20white%20paper_FINAL,0.pdf Many of the findings show that individuals are unrealistic and confused. Individual investors say they need 9.7% returns above inflation to meet their … Continue reading

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Sam Zell Expects a Market Correction (Video)

Sam Zell was on Squawk Box this morning and warned of a correction. He repeated many of the themes that have been written here over the past few years, including the theme of Federal Reserve excesses leading to rising asset prices. It … Continue reading

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The Market Return Histogram through 2014

The S&P 500 Index delivered a 13.69% return in 2014 as the market continued to reach new highs after reaching new highs in 2013. This year, for the first time, I have highlighted the years corresponding with the inflation and bursting … Continue reading

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Is Your Adviser a Fiduciary?

Answer: Probably not, if your adviser is a broker (AKA a “Financial Consultant” or “Financial Adviser” employed by a brokerage firm). “Brokers, like those at the Toffels’ bank, are technically known as registered representatives. They are required only to recommend “suitable” investments … Continue reading

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