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Tag Archives: Quantitative Easing
Relationship Between Stock Returns and Interest Rate Movements
I try to find evidence that refutes my theses on expected market returns to avoid behavioral traps. This graph from JP Morgan Asset Management’s research team offers some optimism for equities for rolling two-year periods if the Fed starts to … Continue reading
Market Overvaluation: It’s Not Just the CAPE
After my last post, I saw a blog post on another value investing site that criticized the type of CAPE analysis that I presented last week to indicate the market was overvalued. The author of that post suggests that the … Continue reading
After the Market Plunge: The Market is Still Significantly Overvalued
After the 8/17/15 through 8/21/15 plunge of 5.8% in the S&P 500 index and Dow, many are wondering whether the worst is over. It is impossible to predict what next week or next year will look like, but you ignore at your … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Behavioral Finance, CAPE, Competition and Strategy, Conventional Professional Investors, Factor Premia, Goals-based investing, Goals-based planning, Margin of Safety, PAR, PAR Wealth Management, Quantitative Easing, Risk, Robert Shiller, Separate Account Value Investing (SAVI) Strategies, Tobin's Q Ratio, Traditional Wealth Management, Value Investing, Warren Buffett
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Employment-to-Pop and CAPE Updates
Readers know there are two statistics that have caused me to worry for the past few years about the health of the economy and the market. The first statistic is a macroeconomic indicator called the Employment-to-Population Ratio (E/Pop, to distinguish … Continue reading
Sam Zell Expects a Market Correction (Video)
Sam Zell was on Squawk Box this morning and warned of a correction. He repeated many of the themes that have been written here over the past few years, including the theme of Federal Reserve excesses leading to rising asset prices. It … Continue reading
The Market Return Histogram through 2014
The S&P 500 Index delivered a 13.69% return in 2014 as the market continued to reach new highs after reaching new highs in 2013. This year, for the first time, I have highlighted the years corresponding with the inflation and bursting … Continue reading
Contemporary Art Auctions Reach Records
Liquidity, both physical and financial, tends to take the path of least resistance. If it is easy for corporations to borrow in public debt markets because high liquidity keeps interest rates low (in the near term), corporations that lack ideas for organic … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Behavioral Finance, Debt Crisis, Euro Crisis, European Debt Crisis, Herb Stein, Housing Bust, Howard Marks, Liquidity, Pascal, Quantitative Easing, Risk
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“Continued Signs of Financial Market Excess”
From a report on CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102009066): “There was one additional dissenter for the September statement. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser voted against the position in July, and he was joined this month by Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. ‘President Fisher … Continue reading
There was No “De-Leveraging”
Ray Dalio of Bridgewater is fond of calling our government bailout a “beautiful deleveraging” (http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/research/deleveraging/an-in-depth-look-at-deleveragings–ray-dalio-bridgewater.pdf) probably because he bet correctly that the flood of liquidity would lift all boats in the short run. But, I have been arguing the point in … Continue reading
This is the Worst Recovery in the Post WWII Era
I think my former Wall Street colleagues know this without the need to read a chart. I added Sufi and Mian’s blog to the economics blogroll on the right after seeing the CFA Institute’s webcast of Sufi’s presentation at a conference … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Amir Sufi, Atif Mian, CFA, CFA Institute, Chartered Financial Analyst, Competition and Strategy, Debt Crisis, Free Markets, House of Debt, Housing Bust, Invisible Hand, Quantitative Easing, Ray Kurzweil, Risk, Singularity, The Rational Optimist, Worst Recovery in History
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