Tag Archives: Tobin’s Q Ratio

The Market and the Economy Mid-Year 2014: A Top-Down View

I have excerpted part of PAR’s semi-annual letter that PAR sent to clients on July 7, 2014, and I have pasted it below. No one knows where the market is going to end up in the near term, but over the … Continue reading

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The Stock Market: Looking in from the Outside

We are nearly halfway through 2013 and the S&P 500 Total Return Index is on pace to deliver a return of over 47% for the year. In the last 188 years of stock market activity, the market delivered an annual return of … Continue reading

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The Equity Market Annual Return Histogram Updated for 2012

Better late than never. I have updated the equity market annual return histogram for the 16.00% total return generated by the S&P 500 index in 2012. As Michael Mauboussin says, when understanding an investment idea, we should try take an outsider’s … Continue reading

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An Unusually Large Herd of Grey Swans

Events that can have a significant impact on the economy and capital markets have become known as swans of various shades thanks largely to Nassim Taleb’s book, The Black Swan, in which Taleb reminded us of Karl Popper’s criticism of … Continue reading

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It’s 1931

I channel Dow Jones Market Talk, which channels Brad DeLong, who channels Rogoff, Reinhart, and Krugman. MARKET TALK: It’s 1931 DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 5:20 (Dow Jones) “I have been complaining for some time now that Reinhart and Rogoff think that … Continue reading

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Counterfactual Friday: The CAPE

Current Market Perspective: Moderately bearish based on three pieces of information: Our bottom-up security selection process is revealing few bargains; Total public and private debt in developed countries is unsustainably high relative to GDP and will require long, painful de-leveraging … Continue reading

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Just What is Seth Klarman up to? It May not be What Optimists Believe

Apparently, Seth Klarman is in the market for capital. This is always news because Klarman has a reputation for shunning capital from new investors and frequently returning excess capital to existing investors. However, the author of the attached story has … Continue reading

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Many Well Known Hedge Funds are Having Bad Years

Where’s the hedging?… With data flowing in now, it is apparent that a large number of hedge funds are in the red this year and several dozen are down by double-digit rates. They include many well-known names that run billions … Continue reading

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Market Valuation, Deus Ex Machina, and Volatility

We have written several times to say that the market in general is overvalued based on earnings (the CAPE) and book value (Tobin’s Q). Even after the recent selloff, the market is still well above long-term averages. However, astute market … Continue reading

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I am a Proud Member of the “I Don’t Know” School

I am sorry for the dearth of posting. I was with family on vacation watching my youngest son play in the AAU National Baseball Championship Tournament in Florida, which was followed by a short family due diligence trip to Disney … Continue reading

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