Tag Archives: European Debt Crisis

Several of the Grey Swans Itemized in February 2012 Have Materialized in the Last Twelve Months

http://amarginofsafety.com/2012/02/24/a-herd-of-grey-swans/ Check out: #5: Unrest as Iran develops a nuclear weapon (almost there); #6: A Chinese economic implosion; #8: Public sector retirement default (Puerto Rico is closing in); #9: Significant unrest in the Muslim world due to US withdrawal (Benghazi, ISIS, etc.); … Continue reading

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Market Overvaluation: It’s Not Just the CAPE

After my last post, I saw a blog post on another value investing site that criticized the type of CAPE analysis that I presented last week to indicate the market was overvalued. The author of that post suggests that the … Continue reading

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Employment-to-Pop and CAPE Updates

Readers know there are two statistics that have caused me to worry for the past few years about the health of the economy and the market. The first statistic is a macroeconomic indicator called the Employment-to-Population Ratio (E/Pop, to distinguish … Continue reading

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Contemporary Art Auctions Reach Records

Liquidity, both physical and financial, tends to take the path of least resistance. If it is easy for corporations to borrow in public debt markets because high liquidity keeps interest rates low (in the near term), corporations that lack ideas for organic … Continue reading

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There was No “De-Leveraging”

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater is fond of calling our government bailout a “beautiful deleveraging” (http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/research/deleveraging/an-in-depth-look-at-deleveragings–ray-dalio-bridgewater.pdf) probably because he bet correctly that the flood of liquidity would lift all boats in the short run. But, I have been arguing the point in … Continue reading

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Seth Klarman is Sitting on a Mountain of Cash

“…around 50% of our assets are in cash, and that’s a very high absolute number, now around $14 billion and rising…”–Seth Klarman I recently came across this quote from Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group, which he said during a … Continue reading

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“…the prime directive will be to ‘lose as little money as possible’.” Jason Zweig Interviews Dean LeBaron

The WSJ published another excellent The Intelligent Investor column today written by Jason Zweig. In it, Jason interviews Dean LeBaron, retired founder of Batterymarch Financial Management. “For decades, the name of the game for investors has been to make as … Continue reading

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The Equity Market Annual Return Histogram Updated for 2012

Better late than never. I have updated the equity market annual return histogram for the 16.00% total return generated by the S&P 500 index in 2012. As Michael Mauboussin says, when understanding an investment idea, we should try take an outsider’s … Continue reading

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An Unusually Large Herd of Grey Swans

Events that can have a significant impact on the economy and capital markets have become known as swans of various shades thanks largely to Nassim Taleb’s book, The Black Swan, in which Taleb reminded us of Karl Popper’s criticism of … Continue reading

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Vox added to the Blogroll

I have added a new economics blog to the “Other Investing…” blogroll. It is called Vox and it focuses on EU policy issues. http://www.voxeu.org/ &nbsp… Continue reading

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