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Tag Archives: Matt Ridley
Market Overvaluation: It’s Not Just the CAPE
After my last post, I saw a blog post on another value investing site that criticized the type of CAPE analysis that I presented last week to indicate the market was overvalued. The author of that post suggests that the … Continue reading
Why the Singularity Makes Me a Rational Optimist
The main reason that I am a rational optimist in the long run, like Matt Ridley, is that technology is expanding exponentially; it is growing at a growing rate. Kurzweil in his book, The Singularity is Near, discusses how difficult … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Matt Ridley, Ray Kurzweil, Ted Talk, The Rational Optimist, The Singularity
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An Unusually Large Herd of Grey Swans
Events that can have a significant impact on the economy and capital markets have become known as swans of various shades thanks largely to Nassim Taleb’s book, The Black Swan, in which Taleb reminded us of Karl Popper’s criticism of … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged a herd of grey swans, black swan, CAPE, Debt Crisis, Euro Crisis, European Debt Crisis, Eurozone, grey swan, Housing Bust, Karl Popper, Matt Ridley, Nassim Taleb, Quantitative Easing, The Rational Optimist, The Rational Zoologist, Tobin's Q Ratio, Value Investing, white swans
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Equity Market Histogram: Another Victory for the Mode in 2011
As I recall, I said at the beginning of 2011 that predictions are worthless, but if one takes an outsider’s view there is a 70% chance that the market’s total return will be positive in 2011 and that the most likely event … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Competition and Strategy, Conventional Professional Investors, Euro Crisis, Financial Media, Free Markets, Historical Market Histogram, Invisible Hand, Market Returns Histogram, Matt Ridley, Outside View, Predicting the Future, Risk, The Rational Optimist
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The Origin of Kellogg’s Corn Flakes
Like mutations in evolution, many accidents such as the one described below lead to increases in diversity. Further proof that centralized, top-down planning could never produce a standard of living as satisfying as atomistic, decentralized agents produce. I love browsing … Continue reading
I, Cheeseburger
H/T Cafe Hayek for the link Another example of the beauty of free markets in the spirit of the famous: I, Pencil. We rarely examine sufficiently the counterfactuals to the success of free markets, which allows anti-capitalists such as Michael … Continue reading
To Use the Final Words of Steve Jobs: “Oh Wow.” (Video)
I think Jobs would have been impressed…and probably would have spent hours trying to figure out how to build a robot that could kick this one’s ass. H/T Marginal Revolution Mona Simpson’s Jobs Eulogy Here: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/opinion/mona-simpsons-eulogy-for-steve-jobs.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all H/T: Cafe Hayek… Continue reading
Baby Toursim: US Problem or Opportunity?
Brian Williams’ new show, Rock Center, broadcast this evening with a piece on wealthy foreign pregnant women–many Chinese–who are coming to the US to give birth so that their children can receive citizenship and a Social Security card. Many are outraged … Continue reading
Why All the Cheer?
I am an optimist by nature, and I hope a rational one in the Matt Ridley vein. But, I do not understand the optimism in the market in the last seven trading days (plus forty-five minutes). Markets are up over … Continue reading
More Reasons for Rational Optimism–A Cure for Cancers?
Economic freedom leads to trade and specialization. Millions of free people pursuing wealth–among other things–develop products and ideas that benefit all of mankind. The mere possibility of a cure for cancers makes me immeasurably wealthier today than I was yesterday even … Continue reading