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Tag Archives: Behavioral Finance
Rare Video of Peter Cundill Lecture from 2005
I read Russo-Gill’s book on Peter Cundill–There is Always Something to Do– soon after it was published in 2011, but not the Routines and Orgies book on the same subject. BeyondProxy linked to this rare footage of Cundill speaking of … Continue reading
Relationship Between Stock Returns and Interest Rate Movements
I try to find evidence that refutes my theses on expected market returns to avoid behavioral traps. This graph from JP Morgan Asset Management’s research team offers some optimism for equities for rolling two-year periods if the Fed starts to … Continue reading
Market Overvaluation: It’s Not Just the CAPE
After my last post, I saw a blog post on another value investing site that criticized the type of CAPE analysis that I presented last week to indicate the market was overvalued. The author of that post suggests that the … Continue reading
After the Market Plunge: The Market is Still Significantly Overvalued
After the 8/17/15 through 8/21/15 plunge of 5.8% in the S&P 500 index and Dow, many are wondering whether the worst is over. It is impossible to predict what next week or next year will look like, but you ignore at your … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Behavioral Finance, CAPE, Competition and Strategy, Conventional Professional Investors, Factor Premia, Goals-based investing, Goals-based planning, Margin of Safety, PAR, PAR Wealth Management, Quantitative Easing, Risk, Robert Shiller, Separate Account Value Investing (SAVI) Strategies, Tobin's Q Ratio, Traditional Wealth Management, Value Investing, Warren Buffett
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Employment-to-Pop and CAPE Updates
Readers know there are two statistics that have caused me to worry for the past few years about the health of the economy and the market. The first statistic is a macroeconomic indicator called the Employment-to-Population Ratio (E/Pop, to distinguish … Continue reading
Natixis Sees a Lack of Realism in Individual Investor Expectations
Natixis published its fourth Global Survey of Individual Investors today. They reached 7,000 investors in 17 countries. http://ngam.natixis.com/docs/265/1012/2015%20Individual%20Investor%20Survey%20white%20paper_FINAL,0.pdf Many of the findings show that individuals are unrealistic and confused. Individual investors say they need 9.7% returns above inflation to meet their … Continue reading
Sam Zell Expects a Market Correction (Video)
Sam Zell was on Squawk Box this morning and warned of a correction. He repeated many of the themes that have been written here over the past few years, including the theme of Federal Reserve excesses leading to rising asset prices. It … Continue reading
When Benjamin Graham Learned a Difficult Lesson
This comes courtesy of Frank Martin, CFA’s 2014 Annual Report to his clients. I had the pleasure of Skyping with Frank a few years ago. “At the quarter-century mark of 1925, the great bull market was under way, and Graham, … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Behavioral Finance, Benjamin Graham, Bernard Baruch, CFA, Frank Martin, Margin of Safety, Value Investing
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Profoundly Unpopular: Finding Bargains Among the Unloved or Unknown
Jason Zweig has produced another excellent column exposing truths that hide in plain sight. If you want to buy a dollar of free cash flow for less than one dollar, you are probably not going to find it among the … Continue reading
The Market Return Histogram through 2014
The S&P 500 Index delivered a 13.69% return in 2014 as the market continued to reach new highs after reaching new highs in 2013. This year, for the first time, I have highlighted the years corresponding with the inflation and bursting … Continue reading