Tag Archives: Debt Crisis

Howard Marks in Barrons. Is a Retraction/Correction Coming?

I do not think that Barron’s front page headline in this week’s magazine accurately reflects Howard Marks’ thinking. Marks’ latest full-length memo (he is famous for his memos) seems to be a LOT more cautious and a LOT less sanguine about markets, especially debt markets, than the … Continue reading

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The Equity Market Annual Return Histogram Updated for 2012

Better late than never. I have updated the equity market annual return histogram for the 16.00% total return generated by the S&P 500 index in 2012. As Michael Mauboussin says, when understanding an investment idea, we should try take an outsider’s … Continue reading

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Public Pension Ponzi Scheme; New York Cities Borrow From Pension Plan to Make Contributions

I was alerted to this post by a friend on Facebook. It points to a New York Times article on pension robbing. Public Pension Ponzi Scheme; New York Cities Borrow From Pension Plan to Make Contributions. The definition of Financial Repression: … Continue reading

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An Unusually Large Herd of Grey Swans

Events that can have a significant impact on the economy and capital markets have become known as swans of various shades thanks largely to Nassim Taleb’s book, The Black Swan, in which Taleb reminded us of Karl Popper’s criticism of … Continue reading

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With No Changes, the US Will Be Insolvent

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-dirty-secret-in-uncle-sams-friday-trash-dump/2011/12/28/gIQArtWMNP_story.html?tid=sm_btn_tw Buried in GAO financial statements released on the Friday before Christmas was this information (H/T Guy Spier): In fiscal 2011, the cost of [Social Security and Medicare] promises grew from $30.9 trillion to $33.8 trillion. To put that in context, consider … Continue reading

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Ron Paul’s Portfolio: “A Cellar-Full of Canned Goods and 9mm Rounds…”

At least that is what William Bernstein thinks (H/T: Greg Mankiw): At our request, William Bernstein, an investment manager at Efficient Portfolio Advisors in Eastford, Conn., reviewed Rep. Paul’s portfolio as set out in the annual disclosure statement. Mr. Bernstein … Continue reading

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Cleveland Fed: State of the Consumer

US consumer data does not comport with the optimistic market today (H/T: Jason Zweig) http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2012/0112/01houcon.cfm   &nbsp… Continue reading

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More on Europe from SocGen and Kyle Bass

From a SocGen Analyst’s note released today: The extraordinary events we’ve seen these past months are now threatening the euro project, and calls for its dismissal, which were laughable a year ago, are becoming more mainstream. Risk aversion has increased … Continue reading

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A Close Examination of Federal Stimulus Spending in Silver Spring, MD…

…and the US. Whew. (H/T: Cafe hayek) More evidence that the Austrian School is correct. Paul Krugman still believes we just needed more of this:   On another note, George Mason University has quite an impressive number of thinkers in … Continue reading

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“It’s a Disaster, the United States…” Kyle Bass

Bass’s usual upbeat outlook on Japan, Europe and the US as broadcast on BNN today. I wish the interviewers would have allowed Bass to fully answer their questions. They cut him off too many times to ask a new question in the … Continue reading

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