Tag Archives: Outside View

Annual US Market Return Histogram through 2013

It was a remarkable year for the US stock market in 2013 as the S&P 500 Index delivered a total return of 32.39%. As one can see in the attached histogram, it was the market’s best year since 1997. That … Continue reading

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The Stock Market: Looking in from the Outside

We are nearly halfway through 2013 and the S&P 500 Total Return Index is on pace to deliver a return of over 47% for the year. In the last 188 years of stock market activity, the market delivered an annual return of … Continue reading

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Equity Market Histogram: Another Victory for the Mode in 2011

As I recall, I said at the beginning of 2011 that predictions are worthless, but if one takes an outsider’s view there is a 70% chance that the market’s total return will be positive in 2011 and that the most likely event … Continue reading

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