Tag Archives: Risk

Equity Market Histogram: Another Victory for the Mode in 2011

As I recall, I said at the beginning of 2011 that predictions are worthless, but if one takes an outsider’s view there is a 70% chance that the market’s total return will be positive in 2011 and that the most likely event … Continue reading

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With No Changes, the US Will Be Insolvent

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-dirty-secret-in-uncle-sams-friday-trash-dump/2011/12/28/gIQArtWMNP_story.html?tid=sm_btn_tw Buried in GAO financial statements released on the Friday before Christmas was this information (H/T Guy Spier): In fiscal 2011, the cost of [Social Security and Medicare] promises grew from $30.9 trillion to $33.8 trillion. To put that in context, consider … Continue reading

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Ron Paul’s Portfolio: “A Cellar-Full of Canned Goods and 9mm Rounds…”

At least that is what William Bernstein thinks (H/T: Greg Mankiw): At our request, William Bernstein, an investment manager at Efficient Portfolio Advisors in Eastford, Conn., reviewed Rep. Paul’s portfolio as set out in the annual disclosure statement. Mr. Bernstein … Continue reading

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Cleveland Fed: State of the Consumer

US consumer data does not comport with the optimistic market today (H/T: Jason Zweig) http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2012/0112/01houcon.cfm   &nbsp… Continue reading

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More on Europe from SocGen and Kyle Bass

From a SocGen Analyst’s note released today: The extraordinary events we’ve seen these past months are now threatening the euro project, and calls for its dismissal, which were laughable a year ago, are becoming more mainstream. Risk aversion has increased … Continue reading

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A Close Examination of Federal Stimulus Spending in Silver Spring, MD…

…and the US. Whew. (H/T: Cafe hayek) More evidence that the Austrian School is correct. Paul Krugman still believes we just needed more of this:   On another note, George Mason University has quite an impressive number of thinkers in … Continue reading

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“It’s a Disaster, the United States…” Kyle Bass

Bass’s usual upbeat outlook on Japan, Europe and the US as broadcast on BNN today. I wish the interviewers would have allowed Bass to fully answer their questions. They cut him off too many times to ask a new question in the … Continue reading

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Recent Earthquakes, A Graphical Comparison

This is an interesting perspective. (H/T Infectious Greed)… Continue reading

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Recent Headlines from a Popular News Aggregator

Recent headlines from a popular news aggregation website: Germany told it must act to save Europe… Impassioned plea for continent to avoid ‘apocalypse’… Warned of ‘highly devastating outcomes’… Just days until collapse? It is hard to believe the US market … Continue reading

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More Evidence that the Value Premium is Unrelated to Risk

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1840551 Continue reading

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