As I wrote before, the market’s dramatic rise in the face of the daunting problems that we know about seemed absurd, especially when unknown unknowns are always with us. China is one, but this may be the ultimate wild card:
Israel will launch military action to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon as soon as Christmas, intelligence chiefs have warned.
A report by a UN watchdog into Iran’s nuclear ambitions ‘completely discredits’ the Islamic nation’s protestations of innocence, according to Foreign Secretary William Hague.
The International Atomic Energy Agency found that Iran is developing a nuclear test facility, nuclear detonators and computer modelling for a nuclear warhead that would fit on an existing missile.
Sources say the understanding at the top of the British Government is that Israel will attempt to strike against the nuclear sites ‘sooner rather than later’ – with logistical support from the U.S.
A senior Foreign Office figure has revealed that ministers have been told to expect Israeli military action, adding: ‘We’re expecting something as early as Christmas, or very early in the new year.’
War with Iran and neighboring countries with Shiite majorities (including Iraq, to which our President seems content to concede all authority at the expense of the coalition with the Kurds and Sunnis) could be a much bigger event for world economies and markets. The haggling over Europe will seem like a walk in the park in comparison.
And for some predictions from Intrade…
http://intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=37985