Category Archives: Uncategorized

Profoundly Unpopular: Finding Bargains Among the Unloved or Unknown

Jason Zweig has produced another excellent column exposing truths that hide in plain sight. If you want to buy a dollar of free cash flow for less than one dollar, you are probably not going to find it among the … Continue reading

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The Market Return Histogram through 2014

The S&P 500 Index delivered a 13.69% return in 2014 as the market continued to reach new highs after reaching new highs in 2013. This year, for the first time, I have highlighted the years corresponding with the inflation and bursting … Continue reading

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Is Your Adviser a Fiduciary?

Answer: Probably not, if your adviser is a broker (AKA a “Financial Consultant” or “Financial Adviser” employed by a brokerage firm). “Brokers, like those at the Toffels’ bank, are technically known as registered representatives. They are required only to recommend “suitable” investments … Continue reading

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Truly Honored by Jason Zweig’s Selection of this Blog

I am truly honored to have been selected by Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal as one of a handful of investors that Jason thinks are “Smart People for Investors to Follow.” This Margin of Safety blog can be … Continue reading

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B. Malkiel Cannot Believe His Own Eyes

“Over the past 100 years the returns from smaller companies have exceeded those of larger companies. It is also true that stocks with low valuations (i.e. lower prices relative to earnings and book values) have generated better returns than those … Continue reading

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Contemporary Art Auctions Reach Records

Liquidity, both physical and financial, tends to take the path of least resistance. If it is easy for corporations to borrow in public debt markets because high liquidity keeps interest rates low (in the near term), corporations that lack ideas for organic … Continue reading

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“Continued Signs of Financial Market Excess”

From a report on CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102009066): “There was one additional dissenter for the September statement. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser voted against the position in July, and he was joined this month by Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. ‘President Fisher … Continue reading

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There was No “De-Leveraging”

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater is fond of calling our government bailout a “beautiful deleveraging” (http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/research/deleveraging/an-in-depth-look-at-deleveragings–ray-dalio-bridgewater.pdf) probably because he bet correctly that the flood of liquidity would lift all boats in the short run. But, I have been arguing the point in … Continue reading

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Bloomberg Article on the Myopia of Buying a Vacation Home

When viewing a vacation home as an investment, most fail to account for all of the costs associated with home ownership. Even after the investment is sold, people overestimate their return because they fail to track all of the costs. In most … Continue reading

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Why the Singularity Makes Me a Rational Optimist

The main reason that I am a rational optimist in the long run, like Matt Ridley, is that technology is expanding exponentially; it is growing at a growing rate. Kurzweil in his book, The Singularity is Near, discusses how difficult … Continue reading

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