Vitaliy Katsenelson’s Blog

I have just added VK’s Contrarian Edge to the blogroll. VK has strong opinions, but backed up with many facts.

He has an interesting tid bit in today’s post: China consumes two-thirds of the world’s production of iron ore.

Given the number of ghost cities in China, for how long?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339536/Ghost-towns-China-Satellite-images-cities-lying-completely-deserted.html

This is going to end badly for many.… Continue reading

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Netflix’s Quarterly Results

Netflix (NASD: NFLX) reported quarterly earnings after the bell today. Here is Martin Peers’ “Heard on the Street” column (I or one of my investment vehicles may be short NFLX):

Screening Netflix’s Numbers

 A DOW JONES COLUMN 

Netflix Inc. (NFLX) signaled Wednesday that it was ready to pick a fight with the cable and phone companies that help get its streaming video service… Continue reading

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Does Your Mutual Fund Manager (or Broker) Have Skin in the Game?

Good article in today’s Wall Street Journal. I could not agree with it any more (subscription Required to read the whole thing):

  • FUND TRACK
  • JANUARY 18, 2011
  • Look for Money Managers With Skin in the Game

    By CHUCK JAFFE

    There is an old adage in investing: No

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    A Wise Fool.com Article

    I found wisdom worthy enough to teach my children in this fool.com article:

    What Everyone Ought to Know, but Doesn’t

    By Buck Hartzell | More Articles
    January 7, 2011 | Comments (24)

    In honor of the brand new year, I’ve created a personal roadmap for 2011, listing several health, financial, family, and travel goals I want to achieve this year. One of those goals is… Continue reading

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    Aswath Damodaran on Herding Behavior

    I have read Aswath’s blog a few times and I am adding it to our blogroll today. He is a professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business and has spoken at CFA Institute conferences. His comments on last week’s Wall Street Journal article on the herding behavior of hedge funds are in the mainstream of findings by behavioral finance experts. Here is the quote… Continue reading

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    Quote of the Day

    I had a good laugh at this quote found at Graham and Doddsville (see link to the right):

    Isn’t it funny when you walk into a(n) investment firm, and you see all of the financial advisors watching CNBC — that gives me the same feeling of confidence I would have if I walked into the Mayo-clinic or Sloan Kettering and

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    Invert, Always Invert

    Update 6/26/2020: Welcome to the readers of Ozan Varol’s book, Think Like a Rocket Scientist. I don’t know Ozal, but he referenced a blogpost of mine from 2011 in his footnotes for chapter 5 (footnote 47). Thank you Ozal.
    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1541762592/ref=ox_sc_act_title_1?smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER&psc=1

    If you read the entire post, you will see that the Facebook results were much better than my market-cap analysis implied (but, it was not a prediction… Continue reading

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    High-Priced Businesses: Jason Zweig on Facebook and the PM’s List of High-Priced Companies

    Jason Zweig’s column in today’s Wall Street Journal is titled “Why the Fuss over Facebook Doesn’t Make It a Homerun” and it provides fodder for two posts on this blog today.

    This first post shows that market buzz, such as the Goldman Sachs induced mania on Facebook, often creates inflated values and losses for investors’ portfolios. At the end of this post, I will provide a… Continue reading

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    Historical Market Returns by Year (1825 – 2010)

    I first saw the Friess Associates and Yale University market return histogram a few years ago and found it fascinating. Barring a large collapse on the last trading day of the year tomorrow, the returns on the S&P 500 (the market) for 2010 should fall into the 10% to 20% bucket.

    I have highlighted the years of the Great Depression, and the three years leading up to… Continue reading

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    Street Cred–The CFA Designation

    I enjoyed this description of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation on CNBC today:

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