Tag Archives: CAPE

Market Overvaluation: It’s Not Just the CAPE

Posted on August 30, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

After my last post, I saw a blog post on another value investing site that criticized the type of CAPE analysis that I presented last week to indicate the market was overvalued. The author of that post suggests that the … Continue reading →

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Employment-to-Pop and CAPE Updates

Posted on June 5, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

Readers know there are two statistics that have caused me to worry for the past few years about the health of the economy and the market. The first statistic is a macroeconomic indicator called the Employment-to-Population Ratio (E/Pop, to distinguish … Continue reading →

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The Market Return Histogram through 2014

Posted on January 19, 2015 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

The S&P 500 Index delivered a 13.69% return in 2014 as the market continued to reach new highs after reaching new highs in 2013. This year, for the first time, I have highlighted the years corresponding with the inflation and bursting … Continue reading →

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The Market and the Economy Mid-Year 2014: A Top-Down View

Posted on July 17, 2014 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

I have excerpted part of PAR’s semi-annual letter that PAR sent to clients on July 7, 2014, and I have pasted it below. No one knows where the market is going to end up in the near term, but over the … Continue reading →

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Howard Marks: The Top-Ten Qualities that Make Warren Buffett Different from Most Investors

Posted on May 1, 2014 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

The following are bullet points reproduced (and numbered by order of appearance) from Howard Marks’s Forward to the third edition of The Warren Buffett Way, by Robert G. Hagstrom. Marks writes a couple of paragraphs to elaborate on each bullet point, … Continue reading →

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The Equity Market Annual Return Histogram Updated for 2012

Posted on March 1, 2013 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

Better late than never. I have updated the equity market annual return histogram for the 16.00% total return generated by the S&P 500 index in 2012. As Michael Mauboussin says, when understanding an investment idea, we should try take an outsider’s … Continue reading →

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An Unusually Large Herd of Grey Swans

Posted on February 24, 2012 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

Events that can have a significant impact on the economy and capital markets have become known as swans of various shades thanks largely to Nassim Taleb’s book, The Black Swan, in which Taleb reminded us of Karl Popper’s criticism of … Continue reading →

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A CNBC Market Master’s Two Remarkable Statements

Posted on November 15, 2011 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

Larry Fink of BlackRock is CNBC’s newest member of their “Masters of the Markets” club. “That and a dime will get you a phone call” was an expression used during the pay phone era to demonstrate that the recognition was … Continue reading →

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It’s 1931

Posted on November 9, 2011 by Ray Galkowski, CFA

I channel Dow Jones Market Talk, which channels Brad DeLong, who channels Rogoff, Reinhart, and Krugman. MARKET TALK: It’s 1931 DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 5:20 (Dow Jones) “I have been complaining for some time now that Reinhart and Rogoff think that … Continue reading →

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