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Tag Archives: Housing Bust
Employment-to-Pop and CAPE Updates
Readers know there are two statistics that have caused me to worry for the past few years about the health of the economy and the market. The first statistic is a macroeconomic indicator called the Employment-to-Population Ratio (E/Pop, to distinguish … Continue reading
The Market Return Histogram through 2014
The S&P 500 Index delivered a 13.69% return in 2014 as the market continued to reach new highs after reaching new highs in 2013. This year, for the first time, I have highlighted the years corresponding with the inflation and bursting … Continue reading
Contemporary Art Auctions Reach Records
Liquidity, both physical and financial, tends to take the path of least resistance. If it is easy for corporations to borrow in public debt markets because high liquidity keeps interest rates low (in the near term), corporations that lack ideas for organic … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Behavioral Finance, Debt Crisis, Euro Crisis, European Debt Crisis, Herb Stein, Housing Bust, Howard Marks, Liquidity, Pascal, Quantitative Easing, Risk
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“Continued Signs of Financial Market Excess”
From a report on CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102009066): “There was one additional dissenter for the September statement. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser voted against the position in July, and he was joined this month by Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. ‘President Fisher … Continue reading
There was No “De-Leveraging”
Ray Dalio of Bridgewater is fond of calling our government bailout a “beautiful deleveraging” (http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/research/deleveraging/an-in-depth-look-at-deleveragings–ray-dalio-bridgewater.pdf) probably because he bet correctly that the flood of liquidity would lift all boats in the short run. But, I have been arguing the point in … Continue reading
Bloomberg Article on the Myopia of Buying a Vacation Home
When viewing a vacation home as an investment, most fail to account for all of the costs associated with home ownership. Even after the investment is sold, people overestimate their return because they fail to track all of the costs. In most … Continue reading
This is the Worst Recovery in the Post WWII Era
I think my former Wall Street colleagues know this without the need to read a chart. I added Sufi and Mian’s blog to the economics blogroll on the right after seeing the CFA Institute’s webcast of Sufi’s presentation at a conference … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Amir Sufi, Atif Mian, CFA, CFA Institute, Chartered Financial Analyst, Competition and Strategy, Debt Crisis, Free Markets, House of Debt, Housing Bust, Invisible Hand, Quantitative Easing, Ray Kurzweil, Risk, Singularity, The Rational Optimist, Worst Recovery in History
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Seth Klarman is Sitting on a Mountain of Cash
“…around 50% of our assets are in cash, and that’s a very high absolute number, now around $14 billion and rising…”–Seth Klarman I recently came across this quote from Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group, which he said during a … Continue reading
“…the prime directive will be to ‘lose as little money as possible’.” Jason Zweig Interviews Dean LeBaron
The WSJ published another excellent The Intelligent Investor column today written by Jason Zweig. In it, Jason interviews Dean LeBaron, retired founder of Batterymarch Financial Management. “For decades, the name of the game for investors has been to make as … Continue reading
Public Pension Ponzi Scheme; New York Cities Borrow From Pension Plan to Make Contributions
I was alerted to this post by a friend on Facebook. It points to a New York Times article on pension robbing. Public Pension Ponzi Scheme; New York Cities Borrow From Pension Plan to Make Contributions. The definition of Financial Repression: … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Bloated Public Sector, Debt Crisis, grey swan, Housing Bust, Public Pension, Risk
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